As has been widely reported, the income gap between rich and poor, often cited as a reason for Ahmadinejad’s election, is worsening, as is inflation. This is despite, or because of, a daily national income of $1-billion from oil.
“There is no outlet for voicing criticism,” Leilaz says. “No one can say anything. Reformist newspapers have very limited circulation due to pressures on them. If we divide the country’s media into 100 parts, we can safely say that 99 parts are the national television and radio, which are controlled completely by the president.”
He describes the ‘pillaging’ of public funds as unprecedented.
“You know that the rate of inflation is four times what is was 27 months ago,” he adds. “I do not think there is a country in the world whose inflation rate is four times what it was 27 months ago.”
One factor in all this, not cited by Leilaz, is the centralisation of power. Planning is down from the top down, and many of the people now doing the planning have more in the way of Islamic credentials than academic ones, let alone practical expertise. The Majlis, the national legislature, has been ineffectual, and intimidation of reformists is becoming more aggressive. Nobel laureate and civil rights lawyer Shirin Ebadi, also in Rooz, says she believes she is being set up for assassination. This may be an exaggeration (one hopes), but the accusations against her of apostasy and serving the C.I.A., noted here previously, have not been retracted. The administration, by hitting at one of its most prominent critics, can cow the rest – or so it hopes.
Iran is capable of existing in a state of constant crisis, and of course the non-accountability of its highest leadership makes it hard to make effective changes. The country’s failure to produce more than a trickle of its own gasoline from its own oil is widely known (ex-presidential candidate Ron Paul mocked this earlier this week), and imports generally are, in Leilaz’ estimate, currently worth $1,200 per man woman and child per year. The CIA Factbook estimated gross domestic product for 2007 at $10,600 per capita (actual personal income would be far less, of course, particularly for those below the wealthier class), so this is a substantial amount of cash. If oil revenues should slump over an extended period of months. this expenditure, which is essentially for necessities, would be hard to sustain.
The move to re-elect former President Khatami next year is gathering momentum, but he is by no means a shoo-in. However, the main criticism he faced, that of failing to redistribute income, looks less damning with every month that goes by under his successor. Leilaz says Iran only created 800,000 jobs annually in recent years, which may sound a lot, but is far from enough to absorb the population of young – and older – people wanting to work.
People's usual reaction to the economic situation in Iran is a fall into a self-referential rage and/or despair. Despite constant interceptions of drug shipments, Iran, still has an immense number of heroin addicts, and crime is increasing as the poor become more desperate. The Shi’ite capacity and esteem for suffering, indeed its ennoblement, is a negative factor here, and an active rebellion is almost inconceivable. But at some point, we have to imagine, something has to give.