Salam,

Every time I email you now, I am concerned that someone will read what I write, and will make your life difficult because of it. And you have the same fear, so we say very little about what is actually happening in Iran.

I can write my thoughts here, and I have no fear that because of them, I will sleep in my own bed or walk down the street unafraid tomorrow. But you know people who have been arrested, or who are afraid of arrest. You can talk quietly to your friends in Tehran, but sending an email to a foreigner is not a safe way to criticise your government, or to discuss what might happen in the future.

At this time, since we cannot be careless, I am writing to you here, instead.

We have agreed that it is impossible to say what will happen in Iran in the near future. The different parts of the government, and the Supreme Guardian, are all shaken by what has happened in the past three weeks. The way the country is governed will begin to change soon, though we cannot say in what way. Western-style democracy will not come to Iran soon, and of course, many people do not want it anyway. A true government of Iran, by Iranians, and for Iranians, would be different to the governments we have in the West.

In this blog, I try to explain Iran to westerners. What I say often seems strange to Iranians, because I leave out many details, and I stress some topics that do not seem important to you. But the way Iran is described in our newspapers and on TV is very distorted, because the people who talk about it are trying to make it fit western ideas of how a nation should be governed. So I write to balance what they have said. They know little about the country’s history, about the Qajar dynasty and Amir Kabir, about Satta Khan or Mohammed Mossadegh.

But still, people here in Canada and in other western countries are trying hard to understand what is happening in Iran, and what the consequences of the election result and the demonstrations will be. I have never seen so much interest in Iran before, nor have so many people read my own blog posts. When I first visited Iran seven years ago, I looked for books about your country, and I found that only three were available. Today, there might be 12 or 15 in a good book-shop, and new books arrive almost every month, often written by people born in Iran. Some of these books present confused or confusing ideas, but then as we both sometimes joke, nobody can figure out Iran – not even Iranians.

The world hopes there is a positive change coming, even if we all fear that is not going to happen soon. There will be changes, but perhaps not good ones. I don’t often speak about my own religious beliefs. The school of thought to which I belong emphasises that it is as important to respect other people’s beliefs as it is to explain our own. But one thing I do believe very strongly is that “Change is stability.” The Creator of the Universe (we sometimes use the term “the Nameless”) may be constant and unchanging, but everything within creation changes constantly. Stars shine and die, planets grow life and then perish, and every individual plant and creature is changing all the time. Our thoughts change, our feelings change, and everything in the world changes, minute by minute and day by day. This change is how the Divine expresses itself, and to fight against it is to fight the Divine.

The Buddhists and the Hindus have the same saying: “All things are impermanent.”

I like many things about the form of Islam I have seen in Iran. Islam does not frighten me the way it frightens other people in the West, nor do I dislike the Quran the way many people here do. I have felt the beauty that lies behind its words, and I have felt the presence of peace in the mosques I have visited. Many things about the cultures or governments of Islam trouble me, but those things are different from the religion itself.

When Imam Khomeini set up the Islamic Republic, he made it almost impossible to change its system. Ayatollah Khamenei is trying to make sure there is no change that happens today, even though many people in Iran want change to happen.

But preventing change is impossible. It is the nature of this world we inhabit that it changes in all ways, and all the time. To prevent that change is to set yourself against the Divine.

And no one human being, even a Veleyat e-Faqih, or a Council of Guardians, or rich men or generals, can forever prevent change happening. A government has to pay attention to the people who are governed, even if it pretends it is not doing this.

As the arrests continue in Tehran and other cities, and people are forced to make idiotic confessions for TV, I try to remember this. I see statements by people like Mr. Mottaki, the Foreign Minister, who says Iran will offer new negotiations with the European Union soon. “The package can be a good basis for talks with the West,” he says. I doubt that this will be so, but the fact he has said this shows the government in Iran is deeply concerned.

Even when General Firouzabadi, the head of the Armed Forces, says his men are ready to sacrifice their lives rather than allow the protests over the election result, it is plain that he is expressing not courage, but fear. A general does not announce that his troops will hurt unarmed demonstrators unless he sees a very great threat there. And perhaps part of the threat is that his own men no longer believe in the Islamic Republic the way they once did.

Here in my “safe, peaceful home,” as you have described it, I still read every day about all the journalists who have been arrested, and the demonstrators who have been shot or imprisoned. You are frightened and angry, I know, but the old men in Tehran are frightened, too. They have lost the support of many people like yourself who, until last month, still respected them.

And if we cannot email each other easily about this, you should know that I still read all I can learn about events in Iran. And I wait for the change that, always, has to come.

Khoda negahdar, my friend.