It didn’t work, whatever it was that was supposed to happen by those who hoped it might. Yes, that’s a tangled sentence, but so were the protestors’ goals. Mir-Hussein Mousavi was hardly a liberal, merely a mellowed old-school Iranian conservative with a sensible wife. He would have changed little had he won the election. Ahmadinejad still held the loyalty of powerful swathes of non-westernised voters as well as the support of his friends in the Islamic Republican Guard. Apart from a rape or beating or two, it’s same old, same old.
Except for a deadline that is sneaking up. Hillary Clinton warned Iran some weeks ago that the time for talking about the country’s nuclear facilities is expiring. The issue of “Why Israel, but not Iran?” when it comes to having nukes doesn’t fly in western capitals, even if there are few governments that want to get into the wrangle. The U.S., increasingly friendless as President Obama’s administration fails to follow up on his first round of “Let’s show mutual respect” speeches, is at odds with Israel over settlement building in the West Bank, and there’s a sense that President Netanyahu may feel that old alliance has, for now, run its course. Translation: the Israeli bombers may yet take off for Isfahan and Natanz before Christmas. (See http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/20090915_misreading_iranian_nuclear_situation?utm_source=GWeeklyS&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=090915&utm_content=readmore for StratFor’s view of this possibility).
I don’t have a clue what might happen then. Probably, the ensuing conflict would be contained within the Persian Gulf, but no war’s outcome is ever certain once the first warplanes cross a frontier. Within Iran, the Mousavists, reformers and erstwhile reformers would rally round in an orgy of patriotic fervour (it’s usual when your country is attacked Pearl Harbor-style) and then …. What?
Iran has few friends: no sensible person counts Hugo Chavez’ Venezuela as a global player, even if it can harass its neighbours. But there are major nations such as Russia and China, and also India to a limited extent, that for pragmatic reasons of their own won’t obstruct the Islamic Republic, and could help it out in a crunch. And if the U.S. takes on a third conflict in the region, then it will again lose huge amounts of treasure and significant numbers of troops, for no real gain.
If this dark scenario does play out, the big loser would be the U.S., not Iran. The States is already wallowing in deep debt and pessimism, and there were headlines today that Europe, for now, is home to more wealth than North America.
One hopes President Obama is working the phones and looking for options.